12998 leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 65% of adults in 12998 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12998, ~25% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12998 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12998 leans more Republican than 8 of 12 neighbors.
12998 runs about 34 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12998 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 12998 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12998, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in 12998 live in densely developed areas, about 32 points below the New York average of 36%. 12998 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 12998, NY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 12998 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 90% of households in 12998 own their home, about 14 points above the New York average of 76%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.