20129 is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 91% of adults in 20129 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 20129, ~44% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~9% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 20129 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 20129 leans more Republican than 16 of 27 neighbors.
20129 runs about 9 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole.
Why 20129 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 20129. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with low food insecurity tend to turn out at a higher rate; 20129, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in 20129 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 20129 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 80%, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 97% of households in 20129 own their home, about 22 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in 20129 have completed high school, above 94% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.