20686 is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 51% of adults in 20686 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 20686, ~24% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 20686 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 20686 leans more Republican than 9 of 23 neighbors.
20686 runs about 32 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while 20686 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 20686 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 20686, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
20686 votes against the grain of Maryland. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while 20686 runs about 32 points more Republican.
Never-married share and voter turnout
Places with a never-married-heavy adult population tend to turn out at a lower rate; 20686, MD sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 20686 looks the way it does
Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and 20686 sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.