21649 leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 54% of adults in 21649 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 21649, ~14% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 21649 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 21649 leans more Republican than 18 of 24 neighbors.
21649 runs about 76 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while 21649 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 21649 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 21649, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
21649 votes against the grain of Maryland. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while 21649 runs about 76 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in 21649 are family households, above 85% of zip codes.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; 21649, MD sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 21649 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 21649 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 50%, about 14 points below the Maryland average of 64%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 28% of adults in 21649 report food insecurity, above 92% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 77% of adults in 21649 have completed high school, below 94% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.