22738 leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 92% of adults in 22738 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 22738, ~28% vote Democratic, ~64% Republican, and ~8% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 22738 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 22738 leans more Republican than 17 of 22 neighbors.
22738 runs about 43 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 22738 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 22738 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 22738, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
22738 votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 22738 runs about 43 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in 22738 are family households, above 84% of zip codes.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 22738, VA sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 22738 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 90% of households in 22738 own their home, about 14 points above the Virginia average of 76%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.