22963 leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 98% of adults in 22963 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 22963, ~44% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~2% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 22963 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 22963 leans more Republican than 7 of 11 neighbors.
22963 runs about 16 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 22963 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 22963. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+4) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+34), a spread of about 38 points.
Why 22963 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 22963, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 74% of households in 22963 are family households, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 67%. 22963 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; 22963, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 22963 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 22963 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 92% of households in 22963 own their home, compared to around 71% in nearby zip codes. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in 22963 have completed high school, above 83% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.