23420 leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 62% of adults in 23420 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23420, ~26% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23420 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23420 leans more Republican than 13 of 21 neighbors.
23420 runs about 23 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23420 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23420. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+23), a spread of about 30 points.
Why 23420 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23420, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 5% of residents in 23420 live in densely developed areas, about 21 points below the Virginia average of 26%. 23420 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 23420, VA sits below the national average on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 23420 looks the way it does
Areas with high food insecurity turn out at lower rates. About 21% of adults in 23420 report food insecurity, above 81% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.