33157 is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 62% of adults in 33157 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33157, ~32% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33157 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33157 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 37 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 7 leaning the other way.
33157 runs about 14 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 33157 sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33157. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+18) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+13), a spread of about 31 points.
Why 33157 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33157, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
33157 votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while 33157 runs about 14 points more Democratic.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 33157, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 33157 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33157 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 22%, about 8 points above the Florida average of 15%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.