33404 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 48 points: about 74% of voters vote Democratic and 26% Republican.
About 60% of adults in 33404 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33404, ~44% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33404 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33404 leans more Democratic than 25 of 26 neighbors.
33404 runs about 62 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 33404 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33404. The north side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+79) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+7), a spread of about 72 points.
Why 33404 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33404, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 88% of residents in 33404 live in densely developed areas, about 52 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 38% of adults in 33404 have never been married, above 85% of zip codes. 33404 runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 33404, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 33404 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33404 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 42% of households in 33404 rent, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 33404 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.