33407 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 50 points: about 75% of voters vote Democratic and 25% Republican.
About 51% of adults in 33407 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33407, ~38% vote Democratic, ~13% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33407 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33407 is the most Democratic-leaning.
33407 runs about 63 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 33407 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33407. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+62) and the east side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+20), a spread of about 41 points.
Why 33407 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33407, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 91% of residents in 33407 live in densely developed areas, about 55 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 49% of adults in 33407 have never been married, above 94% of zip codes. 33407 runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 33407, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 33407 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33407 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 8 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 51% of households in 33407 rent, about 26 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 33407 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.