38076 leans heavily Republican by roughly 42 points: about 29% of voters vote Democratic and 71% Republican.
About 68% of adults in 38076 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38076, ~20% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38076 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38076 is the most Republican-leaning.
38076 runs about 13 points more Republican than Tennessee as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 38076. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+60) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+25), a spread of about 34 points.
Why 38076 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38076, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 5% of residents in 38076 live in densely developed areas, about 16 points below the Tennessee average of 21%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 38076, TN sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 38076 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 90% of households in 38076 own their home, about 13 points above the Tennessee average of 77%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.