38754 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 36 points: about 68% of voters vote Democratic and 32% Republican.
About 55% of adults in 38754 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38754, ~37% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~45% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38754 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38754 leans more Democratic than 5 of 8 neighbors.
38754 runs about 58 points more Democratic than Mississippi as a whole. Mississippi leans Republican overall, while 38754 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 38754. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+64) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+55), a spread of about 119 points.
Why 38754 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38754, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural, majority-Black areas of the Southern Black Belt vote Democratic, against the usual rural pattern. About 84% of residents in 38754 are Black or African American, about 48 points above the Mississippi average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 52% of adults in 38754 have never been married, above 96% of zip codes. 38754 runs against the grain of Mississippi, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with high food insecurity tend to turn out at a lower rate; 38754, MS sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in 38754 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 38754 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 7%, about 53 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 50% of households in 38754 rent, about 25 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 39% of adults in 38754 report food insecurity, above 98% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Mississippi Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.