78002 leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 53% of adults in 78002 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78002, ~23% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78002 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78002 leans more Republican than 15 of 21 neighbors.
Politically, 78002 sits close to the rest of Texas.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78002. The northwest side is the most split-leaning (R+27) and the southeast side is the least split-leaning (R+2), a spread of about 25 points.
Why 78002 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78002, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 83% of households in 78002 are family households, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 78002, TX sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 78002 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78002 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 28%, about 9 points above the Texas average of 19%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.