78236 is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 17% of adults in 78236 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78236, ~8% vote Democratic, ~9% Republican, and ~83% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78236 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78236 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 42 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 5 leaning the other way.
78236 runs about 11 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole.
Why 78236 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 78236. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; 78236, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 78236 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78236 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 98% of households in 78236 rent, compared to around 45% in nearby zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.