78242 leans Democratic by roughly 22 points: about 61% of voters vote Democratic and 39% Republican.
About 31% of adults in 78242 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78242, ~19% vote Democratic, ~12% Republican, and ~69% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78242 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78242 leans more Democratic than 24 of 47 neighbors.
78242 runs about 35 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while 78242 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why 78242 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78242, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 83% of residents in 78242 live in densely developed areas, about 47 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 43% of adults in 78242 have never been married, above 91% of zip codes. 78242 runs against the grain of Texas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 78242, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 78242 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78242 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 39%, about 15 points below the Texas average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 42% of households in 78242 rent, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 69% of adults in 78242 have completed high school, below 98% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.