78015 leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 85% of adults in 78015 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78015, ~29% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78015 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78015 leans more Republican than 15 of 18 neighbors.
78015 runs about 19 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78015. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+51) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+20), a spread of about 31 points.
Why 78015 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78015, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 80% of households in 78015 are family households, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 67%. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but 78015 runs against that pattern.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 78015, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 78015 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 78015 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 91% of households in 78015 own their home, compared to around 70% in nearby zip codes. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in 78015 have completed high school, above 95% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.