78829 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.
About 41% of adults in 78829 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78829, ~22% vote Democratic, ~19% Republican, and ~59% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78829 compares
78829 runs about 20 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while 78829 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78829. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+31), a spread of about 39 points.
Why 78829 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78829, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 55% of adults in 78829 have never been married, far above similar-sized zip codes (around 23%). 78829 runs against the grain of Texas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 78829, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 78829 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78829 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 30%, about 24 points below the Texas average of 54%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 40% of adults in 78829 have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.