85032 is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 58% of adults in 85032 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85032, ~30% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85032 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85032 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 28 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 27 leaning the other way.
85032 runs about 8 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85032. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+12) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+9), a spread of about 21 points.
Why 85032 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 85032. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 85032, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 85032 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85032 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 39% of households in 85032 rent, above 86% of zip codes. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 6% of homes in 85032 have more than one occupant per room, above 90% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.