85254 leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 86% of adults in 85254 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85254, ~40% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~14% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85254 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85254 leans more Republican than 34 of 51 neighbors.
Politically, 85254 sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85254. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+12), a spread of about 13 points.
Why 85254 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85254, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85254 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (more than 99%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 85254, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 85254 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 85254 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 85254 have completed high school, above 87% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.