85054 is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.
About 69% of adults in 85054 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85054, ~34% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85054 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85054 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 21 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 22 leaning the other way.
85054 runs about 6 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85054. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+2) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+8), a spread of about 10 points.
Why 85054 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 85054. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 85054, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 85054 looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 97% of adults in 85054 have completed high school, about 10 points above the Arizona average of 87%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.