95686 leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 43% of adults in 95686 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 95686, ~16% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 95686 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 95686 leans more Republican than 14 of 17 neighbors.
95686 runs about 43 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while 95686 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 95686 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 95686, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
95686 votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while 95686 runs about 43 points more Republican. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 95686 sits in the bottom quarter (about 16%, below 76% of zip codes). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 80% of households in 95686 are family households, above 92% of zip codes.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 95686, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 95686 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 95686 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 14 points below the California average of 62%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 41% of households in 95686 rent, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 27% of adults in 95686 report food insecurity, above 91% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.