95978 leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 64% of adults in 95978 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 95978, ~24% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 95978 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 95978 is the most Republican-leaning.
95978 runs about 46 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while 95978 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 95978 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 95978, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In 95978, more than 99% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 27 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 13% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 22 points below the California average of 35%. Rural areas vote Republican, and 95978 sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 4%, below 87% of zip codes). 95978 runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 95978, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 95978 looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. More than 99% of adults in 95978 have completed high school, about 14 points above the California average of 86%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 90% of households in 95978 own their home, compared to around 69% in nearby zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.