96111 is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 65% of adults in 96111 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96111, ~31% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96111 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96111 leans more Republican than 12 of 15 neighbors.
96111 runs about 25 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while 96111 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 96111. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+6) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+13), a spread of about 19 points.
Why 96111 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 96111, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
96111 votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while 96111 runs about 25 points more Republican.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 96111, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 96111 looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 97% of adults in 96111 have completed high school, about 11 points above the California average of 86%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.