96048 leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 59% of adults in 96048 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96048, ~28% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96048 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96048 leans more Republican than 1 of 4 neighbors.
96048 runs about 26 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while 96048 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 96048 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 96048, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 1% of residents in 96048 live in densely developed areas, about 57 points below the California average of 58%. 96048 runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 96048, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 96048 looks the way it does
Areas with low high-school completion turn out at lower rates. About 98% of adults in 96048 have completed high school, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 90%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.