86540 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 48 points: about 74% of voters vote Democratic and 26% Republican.
About 63% of adults in 86540 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86540, ~46% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86540 compares
86540 runs about 54 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86540 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why 86540 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86540, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86540 votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86540 runs about 54 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 52% of adults in 86540 have never been married, above 96% of zip codes.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 86540, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 86540 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86540 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 37%, about 17 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.