97538 leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.
About 81% of adults in 97538 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 97538, ~27% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 97538 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 97538 is the most Republican-leaning.
97538 runs about 49 points more Republican than Oregon as a whole. Oregon leans Democratic overall, while 97538 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 97538. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+39) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+29), a spread of about 10 points.
Why 97538 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 97538, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in 97538 live in densely developed areas, about 27 points below the Oregon average of 31%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 97538 sits in the bottom quarter (about 16%, below 77% of zip codes). 97538 runs against the grain of Oregon, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; 97538, OR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 97538 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 92% of households in 97538 own their home, about 18 points above the Oregon average of 74%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.