Agua Dulce leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 56% of adults in Agua Dulce typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Agua Dulce, ~18% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Agua Dulce compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Agua Dulce leans more Republican than 39 of 40 neighbors.
Agua Dulce runs about 56 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Agua Dulce is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Agua Dulce leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Agua Dulce, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Agua Dulce votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Agua Dulce runs about 56 points more Republican.
Housing overcrowding and voter turnout
Places with heavy housing overcrowding tend to turn out at a lower rate; Agua Dulce, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Agua Dulce looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 6% of homes in Agua Dulce have more than one occupant per room, above 89% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Leona Valley, CA R+39
- Acton, CA R+33
- Canyon Country, CA D+3
- Quartz Hill, CA R+16
- Del Sur, CA R+33
- Lake Hughes, CA R+27
- Santa Clarita, CA Even
- Palmdale, CA D+14
- Newhall, CA D+7
- Valencia, CA D+9
Cities with Similar Populations
- Annetta, TX R+62
- Warren, ME R+24
- Meroney, AR R+14
- Gaston, OR R+14
- Spring Green, WI R+18
- Harrison City, PA R+25
- Tornillo, TX Even
- Indian Rocks Beach, FL R+21
- Pittsfield, ME R+29
- Eastover, NC R+27
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.