Palmdale leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 50% of adults in Palmdale typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Palmdale, ~29% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Palmdale compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Palmdale is the most Democratic-leaning.
Palmdale runs about 6 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Palmdale. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+21) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+11), a spread of about 32 points.
Why Palmdale leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Palmdale, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 80% of residents in Palmdale live in densely developed areas, about 43 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 40% of adults in Palmdale have never been married, above 94% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Palmdale, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Palmdale looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Palmdale is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 33% of households in Palmdale rent, above 88% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 27% of adults in Palmdale report food insecurity, above 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lancaster, CA D+14
- Acton, CA R+33
- Quartz Hill, CA R+16
- Sun Village, CA D+4
- Littlerock, CA R+10
- Leona Valley, CA R+39
- Pearblossom, CA R+12
- Agua Dulce, CA R+36
- Lake Los Angeles, CA R+9
- Del Sur, CA R+33
Cities with Similar Populations
- Columbus, GA D+31
- Salinas, CA D+29
- Escondido, CA D+8
- Newport News, VA D+39
- Reading, PA D+12
- Evansville, IN R+9
- Aurora, IL D+29
- Glendale, CA D+13
- Fredericksburg, VA D+6
- Tempe, AZ D+27
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.