Apple Valley leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 88% of adults in Apple Valley typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Apple Valley, ~52% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~12% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Apple Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Apple Valley leans more Democratic than 65 of 106 neighbors.
Apple Valley runs about 14 points more Democratic than Minnesota as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Apple Valley. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+26) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+12), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Apple Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Apple Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 94% of residents in Apple Valley live in densely developed areas, about 58 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Apple Valley sits in the top quarter (about 46%, above 92% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 31% of adults in Apple Valley have never been married, above 76% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Apple Valley, MN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Apple Valley looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Apple Valley is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Rosemount, MN D+6
- Burnsville, MN D+23
- Lakeville, MN Even
- Eagan, MN D+23
- Farmington, MN R+11
- Savage, MN D+10
- Bloomington, MN D+32
- Coates, MN R+32
- Richfield, MN D+41
- Inver Grove Heights, MN D+10
Cities with Similar Populations
- Sammamish, WA D+38
- Weymouth Town, MA D+14
- Berwyn, IL D+37
- Danville, VA D+13
- Newark, OH R+27
- Kaneohe, HI D+21
- Conway, SC R+31
- Pinellas Park, FL R+12
- Bonita Springs, FL R+24
- Falls Church, VA D+42
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.