Aransas County leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Aransas County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Aransas County, ~21% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Aransas County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Aransas County is the most Republican-leaning.
Aransas County runs about 32 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Aransas County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+60) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+30), a spread of about 30 points.
Why Aransas County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Aransas County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Aransas County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 60%, well above the Texas average of 35%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Never-married share and voter turnout
Places with a low never-married share tend to turn out at a higher rate; Aransas County, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Aransas County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Aransas County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- San Patricio County, TX R+31
- Refugio County, TX R+36
- Nueces County, TX R+4
- Calhoun County, TX R+37
- Bee County, TX R+22
- Goliad County, TX R+60
- Victoria County, TX R+28
- Kleberg County, TX R+6
- Jim Wells County, TX R+14
- Live Oak County, TX R+61
Counties with Similar Populations
- Upshur County, WV R+55
- Anderson County, KY R+50
- Itawamba County, MS R+76
- Ohio County, KY R+63
- Saline County, IL R+50
- Page County, VA R+53
- Iowa County, WI R+11
- Hood River County, OR D+24
- Shelby County, TX R+54
- Mingo County, WV R+71
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.