Arbon Valley, ID Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Arbon Valley

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Arbon Valley is a Republican stronghold. About 20% of voters here vote Democratic and 80% Republican.

 

About 59% of adults in Arbon Valley typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arbon Valley, ~12% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Arbon Valley compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Arbon Valley leans more Republican than 13 of 18 neighbors.

Arbon Valley runs about 25 points more Republican than Idaho as a whole.

Why Arbon Valley leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arbon Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in Arbon Valley live in densely developed areas, about 15 points below the Idaho average of 18%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Arbon Valley sits in the bottom quarter (about 11%, below 90% of cities). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in Arbon Valley are family households, above 77% of cities.

Cancer-screening access and voter turnout

Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Arbon Valley, ID sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.

Why turnout in Arbon Valley looks the way it does

Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 5% of homes in Arbon Valley have more than one occupant per room, above 86% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Idaho Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.