Arivaca, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Arivaca

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Arivaca leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.

 

About 58% of adults in Arivaca typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arivaca, ~21% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Arivaca compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Arivaca leans more Republican than 5 of 6 neighbors.

Arivaca runs about 20 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Arivaca. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+27) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+13), a spread of about 15 points.

Why Arivaca leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arivaca, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in Arivaca live in densely developed areas, about 38 points below the Arizona average of 39%.

Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean

Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Arivaca, AZ does.

Why turnout in Arivaca looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Arivaca is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.