Carmen is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Carmen typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carmen, ~40% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carmen compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carmen leans more Democratic than 8 of 11 neighbors.
Carmen runs about 9 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole.
Why Carmen leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Carmen. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a low never-married share and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Carmen, AZ does.
Why turnout in Carmen looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 94% of households in Carmen own their home, about 21 points above the Arizona average of 73%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Carmen sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Tubac, AZ R+4
- Tumacacori, AZ D+4
- Rio Rico, AZ D+11
- Amado, AZ R+4
- Patagonia, AZ R+14
- Nogales, AZ D+29
- Green Valley, AZ D+3
- Arivaca, AZ R+26
- Sonoita, AZ R+22
- Washington Camp, AZ R+4
Cities with Similar Populations
- Adrian, WA R+49
- Kirklands Crossroads, AL R+66
- Kinzua, OR R+49
- Nisula, MI R+19
- Obsidian, ID D+10
- Los Pachecos, NM D+29
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.