Arlington leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 96% of adults in Arlington typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arlington, ~30% vote Democratic, ~66% Republican, and ~4% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Arlington compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Arlington leans more Republican than 16 of 47 neighbors.
Arlington runs about 43 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Arlington is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Arlington. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+50) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+33), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Arlington leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arlington, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Arlington votes against the grain of Minnesota. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Arlington runs about 43 points more Republican. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Arlington runs against that pattern.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Arlington, MN sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Arlington looks the way it does
Turnout in Arlington sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- New Rome, MN R+52
- Green Isle, MN R+52
- Gaylord, MN R+44
- New Auburn, MN R+57
- Henderson, MN R+44
- Rush River, MN R+45
- Jessenland, MN R+42
- Hamburg, MN R+49
- Blakeley, MN R+49
- Plato, MN R+56
Cities with Similar Populations
- Whiteman AFB, MO R+23
- Baraga, MI Even
- Bethel, NC D+9
- Elkland, MO R+69
- Eyota, MN R+28
- Oak Hill, FL R+51
- Salt Rock, WV R+62
- Graymoor-Devondale, KY D+22
- Stoutsville, OH R+55
- Enoree, SC R+62
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.