Ayr leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 61% of adults in Ayr typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ayr, ~17% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ayr compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Ayr leans more Republican than 11 of 23 neighbors.
Ayr runs about 8 points more Republican than North Dakota as a whole.
Why Ayr leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ayr, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas with a high white share vote Republican. Ayr sits in the bottom quarter on density and about 96% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 9 points above the North Dakota average of 87%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Ayr, ND sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Ayr looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Ayr is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Absaraka, ND R+46
- Buffalo, ND R+44
- Erie, ND R+44
- Page, ND R+44
- Tower City, ND R+44
- Amenia, ND R+50
- Wheatland, ND R+49
- Arthur, ND R+45
- Casselton, ND R+41
- Oriska, ND R+54
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lydia, KS R+81
- South Lynchburg, SC D+49
- Lejunior, KY R+79
- Heavener Grove, WV R+64
- Hollenberg, KS R+67
- Harvard Station, MA D+29
- Modoc Point, OR R+41
- Ree Heights, SD R+67
- North Creek, UT R+78
- Lidy Hot Springs, ID R+67
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Dakota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.