Bastrop County leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Bastrop County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bastrop County, ~24% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bastrop County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Bastrop County leans more Republican than 4 of 9 neighbors.
Bastrop County runs about 11 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Bastrop County. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+62) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+14), a spread of about 47 points.
Why Bastrop County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bastrop County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 72% of households in Bastrop County are family households, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Bastrop County, TX sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Bastrop County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Bastrop County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 22%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 10%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Lee County, TX R+52
- Travis County, TX D+37
- Caldwell County, TX R+17
- Fayette County, TX R+55
- Hays County, TX D+4
- Williamson County, TX Even
- Gonzales County, TX R+41
- Milam County, TX R+51
- Burleson County, TX R+53
- Lavaca County, TX R+64
Counties with Similar Populations
- Sherburne County, MN R+29
- Roanoke County, VA R+23
- Lafourche Parish, LA R+55
- Ashtabula County, OH R+32
- Marshall County, AL R+64
- Putnam County, NY R+13
- Franklin County, WA R+16
- Walton County, GA R+37
- Portsmouth City, VA D+41
- Sevier County, TN R+58
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.