Hays County is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Hays County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hays County, ~33% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hays County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Hays County leans more Democratic than 9 of 10 neighbors.
Hays County runs about 18 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while Hays County is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Hays County. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+28) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+25), a spread of about 53 points.
Why Hays County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hays County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Hays County votes against the grain of Texas. Texas leans Republican overall, while Hays County runs about 18 points more Democratic.
Developed land and Democratic lean
Places with a heavily developed built environment tend to lean Democratic; Hays County, TX sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Hays County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Hays County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Caldwell County, TX R+17
- Travis County, TX D+37
- Comal County, TX R+36
- Guadalupe County, TX R+23
- Blanco County, TX R+53
- Bastrop County, TX R+24
- Williamson County, TX Even
- Gonzales County, TX R+41
- Kendall County, TX R+49
- Burnet County, TX R+56
Counties with Similar Populations
- Henry County, GA D+26
- Lafayette Parish, LA R+23
- Warren County, OH R+30
- Arlington County, VA D+57
- Union County, NC R+20
- Norfolk City, VA D+44
- Caddo Parish, LA D+18
- Sussex County, DE R+12
- Washington County, AR R+3
- Yavapai County, AZ R+22
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.