Caldwell County leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 53% of adults in Caldwell County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Caldwell County, ~22% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Caldwell County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Caldwell County leans more Republican than 3 of 10 neighbors.
Politically, Caldwell County sits close to the rest of Texas.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Caldwell County. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+51) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+5), a spread of about 46 points.
Why Caldwell County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Caldwell County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 70% of households in Caldwell County are family households, above 81% of counties.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Caldwell County, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Caldwell County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Caldwell County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 11 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 81% of adults in Caldwell County have completed high school, below 93% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Hays County, TX D+4
- Bastrop County, TX R+24
- Gonzales County, TX R+41
- Travis County, TX D+37
- Guadalupe County, TX R+23
- Comal County, TX R+36
- Fayette County, TX R+55
- Blanco County, TX R+53
- Williamson County, TX Even
- Lavaca County, TX R+64
Counties with Similar Populations
- Colquitt County, GA R+36
- Windham County, VT D+28
- Perry County, PA R+52
- Osage County, OK R+39
- Thomas County, GA R+18
- Hillsdale County, MI R+43
- Greene County, AR R+58
- Habersham County, GA R+55
- Hancock County, MS R+53
- Bryan County, OK R+54
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.