Bayard leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Bayard typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bayard, ~44% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bayard compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bayard is the most Democratic-leaning.
Bayard runs about 11 points more Democratic than New Mexico as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Bayard. The north side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+26) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+5), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Bayard leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bayard, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 49% of residents in Bayard live in densely developed areas, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 40% of adults in Bayard have never been married, above 93% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Bayard, NM sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Bayard looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Bayard is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 22%, about 6 points above the New Mexico average of 16%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Santa Clara, NM D+15
- Vanadium, NM D+11
- Arenas Valley, NM Even
- Hurley, NM R+13
- Hanover, NM Even
- Silver City, NM D+11
- Pinos Altos, NM D+8
- Fort Bayard, NM D+6
- Tyrone, NM R+25
- Mimbres, NM D+2
Cities with Similar Populations
- Dinwiddie, VA R+16
- Newburgh Heights, OH D+16
- Eddington, ME R+17
- Bishopville, MD R+39
- Stoystown, PA R+64
- Fairfield Bay, AR R+51
- Stanfordville, NY Even
- Independence, WV R+37
- Appalachia, VA R+62
- Chapman, KS R+54
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.