Arenas Valley is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Arenas Valley typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arenas Valley, ~33% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Arenas Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Arenas Valley sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 10 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 6 leaning the other way.
Arenas Valley runs about 7 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Arenas Valley. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+14), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Arenas Valley leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Arenas Valley. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Never-married share and voter turnout
Places with a low never-married share tend to turn out at a higher rate; Arenas Valley, NM sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Arenas Valley looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Arenas Valley is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Santa Clara, NM D+15
- Bayard, NM D+17
- Silver City, NM D+11
- Vanadium, NM D+11
- Hurley, NM R+13
- Pinos Altos, NM D+8
- Tyrone, NM R+25
- Hanover, NM Even
- Fort Bayard, NM D+6
- Mimbres, NM D+2
Cities with Similar Populations
- Marblehead, OH R+16
- Westtown, PA D+8
- Reidsboro, GA R+72
- Millington, IL R+38
- Coal Hill, AR R+63
- Kite, GA R+73
- Poff, VA R+44
- Sugar Rapids, MI R+41
- Pretty Prairie, KS R+61
- Pine Island, TX R+22
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.