Fort Bayard leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.
About 48% of adults in Fort Bayard typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Fort Bayard, ~25% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~52% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Fort Bayard compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Fort Bayard leans more Democratic than 10 of 16 neighbors.
Politically, Fort Bayard sits close to the rest of New Mexico.
Why Fort Bayard leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Fort Bayard. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with high food insecurity tend to turn out at a lower rate; Fort Bayard, NM sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in Fort Bayard looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Fort Bayard is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 21%, about 5 points above the New Mexico average of 16%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 28% of adults in Fort Bayard report food insecurity, above 94% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Hanover, NM Even
- Sherman, NM D+7
- San Lorenzo, NM Even
- Mimbres, NM D+2
- Vanadium, NM D+11
- Bayard, NM D+17
- Hurley, NM R+13
- Santa Clara, NM D+15
- Faywood, NM R+9
- Arenas Valley, NM Even
Cities with Similar Populations
- Romero, TX R+87
- Brasfield, AR R+77
- Morses Line, VT R+44
- Macatawa, MI R+7
- Madero, TX R+16
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.