Bayville leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Bayville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bayville, ~25% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bayville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bayville leans more Republican than 81 of 95 neighbors.
Bayville runs about 44 points more Republican than New Jersey as a whole. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while Bayville is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Bayville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bayville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Bayville votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 53%, modestly below the New Jersey average of 61%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Bayville runs against the grain of New Jersey, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Bayville, NJ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Bayville looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Bayville is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Ocean Gate, NJ R+27
- Pine Beach, NJ R+22
- Beachwood, NJ R+33
- Island Heights, NJ R+20
- Lanoka Harbor, NJ R+42
- South Toms River, NJ R+3
- Seaside Park, NJ R+29
- Forked River, NJ R+41
- Forked River Beach, NJ R+40
- Seaside Heights, NJ R+8
Cities with Similar Populations
- Batesville, AR R+49
- Danville, KY R+20
- Montgomery, IL D+14
- Arnold, MD D+10
- Springtown, TX R+69
- Mountain Home, ID R+44
- Troy, MO R+45
- Shafter, CA R+11
- Somerville, NJ D+12
- Elmwood Park, NJ R+7
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.