Big Bear Lake leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Big Bear Lake typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Big Bear Lake, ~26% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Big Bear Lake compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Big Bear Lake leans more Republican than 19 of 39 neighbors.
Big Bear Lake runs about 39 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Big Bear Lake is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Big Bear Lake. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+24) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+11), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Big Bear Lake leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Big Bear Lake, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Big Bear Lake votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 82%, well above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Big Bear Lake runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Big Bear Lake, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Big Bear Lake looks the way it does
Turnout in Big Bear Lake sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sugarloaf, CA R+20
- Big Bear City, CA R+27
- Fawnskin, CA R+12
- Big Bear, CA R+22
- Seven Oaks, CA R+24
- Angelus Oaks, CA R+23
- Glen Martin, CA R+24
- Green Valley Lake, CA R+14
- Forest Falls, CA R+21
Cities with Similar Populations
- Running Springs, CA R+27
- Murfreesboro, NC D+31
- Cherry Valley, IL R+15
- Blauvelt, NY R+13
- Slocomb, AL R+75
- Strasburg, CO R+51
- Richwood, TX R+34
- Boxborough, MA D+26
- Williamsburg, MI R+8
- Lincoln, MA D+43
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.