Big Bear City leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Big Bear City typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Big Bear City, ~26% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Big Bear City compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Big Bear City leans more Republican than 27 of 35 neighbors.
Big Bear City runs about 47 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Big Bear City is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Big Bear City leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Big Bear City, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Big Bear City votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 48%, modestly below the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Big Bear City runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Big Bear City, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Big Bear City looks the way it does
Turnout in Big Bear City sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Big Bear, CA R+22
- Sugarloaf, CA R+20
- Big Bear Lake, CA R+19
- Fawnskin, CA R+12
- Seven Oaks, CA R+24
- Angelus Oaks, CA R+23
- Glen Martin, CA R+24
- Forest Falls, CA R+21
- Green Valley Lake, CA R+14
- Lucerne Valley, CA R+35
Cities with Similar Populations
- Purcell, OK R+58
- Belpre, OH R+41
- Pleasant Hills, PA D+6
- Camp Pendleton, CA R+24
- Irvine, KY R+63
- Rapid Valley, SD R+39
- Lackland AFB, TX R+3
- Raymond, NH R+20
- Wilmington, IL R+32
- Elburn, IL R+14
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.