Green Valley Lake leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 70% of adults in Green Valley Lake typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Green Valley Lake, ~30% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Green Valley Lake compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Green Valley Lake leans more Republican than 18 of 49 neighbors.
Green Valley Lake runs about 34 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Green Valley Lake is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Green Valley Lake leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Green Valley Lake, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 85% of residents in Green Valley Lake drive to work alone, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 74%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in Green Valley Lake are family households, above 75% of cities. Green Valley Lake runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Never-married share and voter turnout
Places with a low never-married share tend to turn out at a higher rate; Green Valley Lake, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Green Valley Lake looks the way it does
Turnout in Green Valley Lake sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Running Springs, CA R+27
- Smiley Park, CA R+43
- Cedar Glen, CA R+32
- Skyforest, CA R+18
- Lake Arrowhead, CA R+24
- Crest Park, CA R+19
- Glen Martin, CA R+24
- Fawnskin, CA R+12
- Blue Jay, CA R+16
- Rimforest, CA R+18
Cities with Similar Populations
- Michigamme, MI R+20
- Christine, ND R+44
- Walker, OR R+13
- Needham, AL R+72
- Pricetown, OH R+69
- Crew Lake, LA Even
- Cranesville, NY R+28
- Fruit, IL R+37
- Sterrettania, PA R+23
- Lucas, KS R+65
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.