Big Pine Key leans Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Big Pine Key typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Big Pine Key, ~28% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Big Pine Key compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Big Pine Key leans more Republican than 2 of 6 neighbors.
Big Pine Key runs about 16 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Big Pine Key. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+46) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+22), a spread of about 24 points.
Why Big Pine Key leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Big Pine Key, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Big Pine Key votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 21%, far below the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Big Pine Key, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Big Pine Key looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 97% of adults in Big Pine Key have completed high school, about 8 points above the Florida average of 89%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Big Pine Key sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Summerland Key, FL R+27
- Cudjoe Key, FL R+33
- Sugarloaf Shores, FL R+30
- Marathon, FL R+24
- Key Colony Beach, FL R+35
- Key West, FL D+3
- Long Key, FL R+32
- Layton, FL R+32
Cities with Similar Populations
- Atoka, OK R+58
- Minster, OH R+68
- Westby, WI R+19
- Six Mile, SC R+64
- Hebbronville, TX R+3
- Otisville, MI R+29
- Marmora, NJ R+20
- Nassau, NY R+10
- Sandusky, MI R+44
- Anthony, TX D+6
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.