Caldwell leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 54% of adults in Caldwell typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Caldwell, ~17% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Caldwell compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Caldwell leans more Republican than 28 of 49 neighbors.
Caldwell runs about 5 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Caldwell. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+60) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+43), a spread of about 103 points.
Why Caldwell leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Caldwell, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 93% of residents in Caldwell drive to work alone, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Caldwell sits in the bottom quarter (about 10%, below 93% of cities).
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Caldwell, AR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Caldwell looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Caldwell is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 30% of households in Caldwell rent, above 84% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of adults in Caldwell report food insecurity, above 87% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Meadow Cliff, AR R+33
- Colt, AR R+41
- Forrest City, AR D+30
- Newcastle, AR R+61
- Madison, AR D+67
- Slonikers Mill, AR R+38
- Widener, AR D+3
- Wynne, AR R+35
- Wittsburg, AR R+72
- Palestine, AR R+48
Cities with Similar Populations
- Allen, SD R+11
- Reeves, LA R+88
- Glengary, OR R+52
- McClintocksburg, OH R+45
- Burden, KS R+70
- Anguilla, MS D+53
- Bridgewater, PA R+11
- Whitingham, VT R+6
- Harrison, IL R+44
- Westbrookville, NY R+24
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.