Caldwell, ID Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Caldwell

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Caldwell leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.

 

About 62% of adults in Caldwell typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Caldwell, ~20% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Caldwell compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Caldwell leans more Republican than 5 of 25 neighbors.

Politically, Caldwell sits close to the rest of Idaho.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Caldwell. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+56) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+32), a spread of about 24 points.

Why Caldwell leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Caldwell, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Caldwell votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 68%, far above the Idaho average of 18%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.

Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout

Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Caldwell, ID does.

Why turnout in Caldwell looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Caldwell is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 6% of homes in Caldwell have more than one occupant per room, above 90% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 84% of adults in Caldwell have completed high school, below 83% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Idaho Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.