Cardiff, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Cardiff

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Cardiff leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.

 

About 84% of adults in Cardiff typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Cardiff, ~37% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Cardiff compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Cardiff leans more Republican than 44 of 116 neighbors.

Cardiff runs about 24 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Cardiff is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Cardiff. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+22) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+7), a spread of about 14 points.

Why Cardiff leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Cardiff, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 80% of households in Cardiff are family households, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 67%. Cardiff runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

Food insecurity and voter turnout

Places with low food insecurity tend to turn out at a higher rate; Cardiff, NY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.

Why turnout in Cardiff looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Cardiff is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 74%, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Cardiff have completed high school, above 80% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.