Castle Hayne leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Castle Hayne typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Castle Hayne, ~32% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Castle Hayne compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Castle Hayne leans more Republican than 18 of 48 neighbors.
Castle Hayne runs about 10 points more Republican than North Carolina as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Castle Hayne. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+10) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+39), a spread of about 49 points.
Why Castle Hayne leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Castle Hayne, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Castle Hayne votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 27%, about 9 points below the U.S. average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Castle Hayne, NC sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Castle Hayne looks the way it does
Turnout in Castle Hayne sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Blue Clay Farms, NC R+13
- Kings Grant, NC R+4
- Murraysville, NC Even
- Rocky Point, NC R+36
- Navassa, NC D+5
- Wilmington, NC D+8
- Belville, NC R+16
- Wrightsville Beach, NC R+12
- Hooper Hill, NC D+3
Cities with Similar Populations
- Dock Junction, GA Even
- Fort Stewart, GA R+7
- Wading River, NY R+22
- Seaside, OR D+16
- Old Forge, PA R+5
- Maplewood, MO D+57
- Clear Lake, IA R+31
- Barbourville, KY R+57
- Walnutport, PA R+33
- Salem, MO R+60
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Carolina State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.